Figure 12: Probability maps of volcanism in the SVF calculated using the near-neighbor model (equations 3 and 5). P[volcanic event | a = 10 km2, t = 50,000yr] is contoured using volcanoes formed (a) before 1.75 Ma, (b) 2.0-1.5 Ma, (c) 1.5-1.0 Ma, and (d) 1.25-0.75 Ma. Ages labelled on each plot are the times for which probability estimates were made, using the timing and distribution of volcanic events that occurred during the previous 0.5 m.y. The locations of subsequent volcanic events are also plotted (solid circles - vents formed within the next 50,000 yr; shaded circles - vents formed 50,000-100,000 yr later, based on mean vent ages).