Figure 9: Comparison of recurrence rate estimates based on m = 6, 7, 8, and10 near-neighbor model (labeled lines) calculated using equations 3 and 4 and the observed mean estimate of recurrence rate (heavy line with solid squares). The m = 7 and 8 near-neighbor models best reflect recurrence rate before 1.0 Ma, given the uncertainty in the vent ages. The rate of decrease in recurrence rate after 0.75 Ma is not well-captured by these models.